Last year, I did things a little different, Instead of divulging through all of the teams I decided to just list the teams that I had making the playoffs. With that in mind, I had gotten all four AFC division winners right and one of the wild cards(Baltimore). On the NFC side, I was not so lucky, I got all but one of the division winners wrong(Green Bay), but did get Arizona as a wild card right. This year I'm going back to full standings predictions. And I have some surprises.
American Football Conference
East
New England 11-5(4-2 division)
Miami 8-8(4-2 division)
Buffalo 7-9(4-2 division)
New York 3-13(0-6 division)
Buffalo made a coaching change this offseason and also made big moves adding Lesean McCoy, but that was the only big move. They took a slight hit on defense losing Kiko Alonzo and on the offensive side lost CJ Spiller and Scott Chandler. However, this is not the reason why I am picking Buffalo to regress. One half of the divisions they play is tougher and they have to face the new colts week 1, one of their home games. Buffalo' 1-3 start will set the tone for their season. Miami loaded up this offseason but Kenny Stills was a product of Drew Brees. Until Parker is healthy the offense is not gonna wow anyone that much. Their schedule is tough, they have problems dominating at home for the most part, and road games against the NFC East, Tennessee in their third straight home game, and San Diego are not gonna be easy. They will have to win the games they could not in the past and be able to win in the closing minutes because they are not blowing out the ravens, colts, cowboys, and giants even in Sun Life. Brady's suspension lifted means that they get one more win than before. Week 1 against Pittsburgh was looking to be a loss but that's changed. Pats however will be the last seed among division winners and be the east's only rep.
Losses for the contenders
NE-@Buf, @Ind, @NYG, @Den, @Mia
Mia-@Was, @Ten, @NE, @Buf, @Phi, Bal, @SD, Ind
North
Pittsburgh 12-4(5-1 division)
Baltimore 10-6(3-3 division)
Cincinatti 8-8(3-3 division)
Cleveland 2-14(1-5 division)
Cincinatti's playoff run finally ends. I have them losing the opener because odds are Oakland will not losing both home games to start after improving somewhat last year at home down the stretch and making moves on offense this offseason and they've had bigger problems with Baltimore, who they play right after. Cincinatti also is unpredictable against Pittsburgh. They seem to only win when Pittsburgh is down and I don't see that happening this year in either game despite Pouncey being out(they will just use Bell more). The schedule is tougher than last year with road games at Denver, Arizona, and Buffalo additionally. The wheels finally fall off for Lewis. Pittsburgh will lose the opener and then go on a winning run of nine games before their big road game in Seattle, which I have as a loss, followed by another one to Indianapolis in a rematch from last year before closing out the season 3-1. Pittsburgh should have the number 2 seed.
Losses for the Contenders
Pit-@NE, @Sea. Ind, @Bal
Bal-@Den, @Pit, @Ari, SD, @Cle, @Cin
South
Indianapolis 14-2(5-1 division)
Tennessee 8-8(3-3 division)
Houston 7-9(2-4 division)
Jacksonville 4-12(2-4 division)
Tennessee's record may surprise you, but it shouldn't. They have early season success on defense and can match up well against imbalanced offenses which they face a bunch of this season. They also get four straight chances at home against teams they are picked to lose all four against, but I think they beat one of Buffalo or Miami. Also, Houston will find themselves out before the week 16 game and Tennessee will take advantage of that chance. And if Indy has nothing to play for the last game, Tennessee will have a chance to win. Which is what I see happening. They go on a 5-1 run to end the season. Indianapolis should be by all accounts the defacto top seed with the moves they made this offseason. They picked up Gore and Andre and have backup depth at receiver with Moncrief and Dorsett. They are simply loaded. With Foster's injury to start, I expect Houston to take a step back until he returns and when the season's virtually over for them. There is just too much with the other three teams for Jacksonville to make strides.
Losses for the contenders
Ind-@Atl, Ten
Ten-@TB, Ind, Buf, Atl, @Hou, @NO, @Jac, @NE
West
Denver 11-5(4-2 division)
Kansas City 9-7(4-2 division)
San Diego 9-7(3-3 division)
Oakland 4-12(1-5 division)
Denver, like NE, will finally take a seat from the conference dominance over the years and make way for fresh blood(or familiar faces). Denver will win their annual Manning/Brady meeting this year with the game being in Denver, but the truth will be revealed that it is Luck's time when Manning loses on the road to him again and doesn't avenge his post-season loss. Manning is going to witness with his former team what he did in 2005 after losing to NE back to back postseasons and taking it out on the opposition. That is what I envision with Indy and Luck. Manning's time is done, but he will win the division perhaps one last time before calling it quits. This year, KC breaks the hump and gets a break with a short rest home game against Denver week 2. KC will finally get Manning once, and will not have the misfortune of short rest against Oakland again. People tend to sleep on KC but KC has shown to be a fundamentally sound team under Andy Reid and will return to the postseason after not making it last year. San Diego goes 9-7 for the third straight season. They get bad luck playing at home against Cleveland and Pittsburgh back to back weeks as recent history shows when teams outside the AFC North play these two back to back they never beat both which leads to me giving them a loss to the steelers. And that one loss or their short rest road loss at Oakland will decide SD's whole season. Oakland is in the position of Jacksonville. Too much in the division to contend with while they try to improve but they will snag one division win again, this time against San Diego. Denver and Kansas City make the postseason and San Diego is left out for the second straight year.
Losses for the contenders
Den-@KC, @Det, @Ind, @Pit, SD
KC-@GB, @Cin, @Min, Pit, @Den, @SD, @Bal
SD-Det, @Cin, Pit, @GB, Den, @KC, @Oak
AFC Playoff Picture
(1)Indianapolis 14-2**first round bye**
(2)Pittsburgh 12-4**first round bye**
(3)Denver 11-5
(4)New England 11-5
(5)Baltimore 10-6
(6)Kansas City 9-7
National Football Conference
East
New York 10-6(3-3 division)
Dallas 8-8(4-2 division)
Philadelphia 8-8(3-3 division)
Washington 6-10(2-4 division)
This division has not had a back to back winner since 2004. It's the giants turn and the schedule plays in Eli's favor. Getting a different SF this season, not having to play Seattle, and getting the division in the AFC East where he is 9-1 in his last 10 games, including the postseason, as a starter. The week 10 game against NE is sure to answer some questions. If Eli wins again, the giants deserve to win the east. The giants will have one other factor coming into play for them, the rest of the division getting weaker while they stay where they are. Dallas losing Murray is going to affect them. They went 12-4 last season but they are not playing the AFC South again and the colts at home like last year. Also, I expect Seattle to get revenge, as well as New Orleans taking back their usual ownership of them with a improved oline and improved running game. Philadelphia is in for a rough start and they will be playing catch up after.. Bradford should have his best year but he is not better than Foles and the 3 road games in four weeks to start is going to take its toll. Eagles will start out 0-2, and ultimately be 1-4 before a big division game against the giants. They will have some mid-season success beating the cowboys, dolphins, bucs, and lions but late season losses puts a final cap on their season. Washington is Washington, always better than their record but has shown to be lacking the desire to win for a while now. They get their one big upset win week 10 against the saints, as they have won three of the last four meetings. Giants continue the division or bust trend being the division's only playoff participant but I have the giants being the last division winners seed.
Losses for the contenders
NYG-@Dal, @NO, @Was, @Mia, @Min, Phi
Dal-@NO, NE, @NYG, Sea, Phi, @Mia, @GB, @Buf
Phi-@Atl, Dal, @Was, NO, NYG, @Car, @NE, Ari
North
Green Bay 14-2(6-0 division)
Minnesota 7-9(2-4 division)
Chicago 7-9(2-4 division)
Detroit 6-10(2-4 division)
Let's start with Detroit. So they went 10-6 last year, but they lose two defensive players. They also could have more confusion that ever with Abdullah making things interesting for Bell. Bell said he would rush for 1200 yards and that attitude is usually met by backing it up or a big time backfire, and with Abdullah I see the latter. Also, I see a 2-2 start. They will win one of the first two road games and beat Denver in a upset week 3. But they will struggle against the NFC West. Arizona gets them yet again and does it on the road. Detroit gets off to a 4-3 start but I see a big time fall off the second half. Minnesota has reasons to improve, but they will stay the same with the schedule getting tougher. It will be enough to get the second place tiebreaker. Chicago will take one of the first two home games, but their move ahead of Detroit comes down to their last game in which Chicago takes advantage of Detroit's disappointing season at home. Green Bay has lost Nelson but last year, Lacy won the game in Minnesota and Detroit shut him down. And GB will be too good to lose any of their division games as they will have a much bigger advantage this season. Getting the teams they get at home also is a plus where losing Nelson is not that big of a deal. It basically just says Green Bay won't have as many blowout home wins as last year, but they will grind them out more.Let's look at GB's first six games...@Chi, Sea, KC, @SF, StL, SD. If they beat Seattle, which they should giving what they have lost just for a redzone threat, they will start out 6-0. And that will pretty much drive their season forward. I like Green Bay to have the top seed in the NFC and be the north's only playoff participant.
Losses for the contenders
GB-@Den, @Ari
South
Atlanta 11-5(3-3 division)
New Orleans 9-7(3-3 division)
Tampa Bay 7-9(4-2 division)
Carolina 5-11(2-4 division)
I want to be wrong here as a saints fan, but these predictions are based on the saints losing week 1, going 3-3 again in division and not winning in Indianapolis and Houston. If they pull out one of those, they get to ten wins. I have them sweeping Atlanta because Atlanta may not need to win the last game if these records stand and they will already lose the conference record tie-breaker against Seattle if they win. Atlanta is a team that when good they beat all the flawed teams and beat most teams at home. Atlanta could not have asked for a better inter-conference schedule getting the AFC South and the better talented teams at home. They also get SF at the right season and Minnesota has to go to Atlanta. They just don't lose these games. There is the trend of the 3rd place never winning the division the next year but Carolina did end the division winning curse. The defense is suppose to improve. Tampa Bay will have a turnaround year but will hit a snag from weeks 9-12. Carolina's doesn't get so lucky this year. The schedule does not suit them, the AFC South if they match up well against anyone it's Carolina who should be the weakest offense in the division and Houston and Tennessee can certainly rattle them because of that. Indy will not lose to them. I have them beating the eagles in their week 7-9 three game homestand only. And they will lose to Seattle and Green Bay. TB is itching for payback on them for the last two season sweeps. The injury to Kelvin should have sent the message that Carolina was in for a shock this year.
Losses for the contenders
Atl-@NYG, @Dal, @NO, @Car, NO
NO-@Ari, TB, @Ind, @Was, @Hou, Car, @TB
West
Seattle 12-4(5-1 division)
Arizona 10-6(3-3 division)
St.Louis 6-10(3-3 division)
San Francisco 3-13(1-5 division)
This is pretty a much a two team race. Arizona is the only team that has what it takes to stop Seattle. It is almost once again becoming the NFC West of old. The AFC West has surpassed it as the toughest division. Seattle has taken some hits this offseason but the schedule was too good. Getting the teams they get at home is a plus for them and going on the road against Minnesota works in their favor. They have reason to get back at Dallas and I believe they will. Arizona will have the same team as last year, win the home games except Seattle and win the road games against the bad teams. They finally after 6 years will sweep the 49ers. Rams and Fisher is about to come to a head. There is already the seeds planted with the drafting of Gurley. Fisher's style of coaching offenses has been stale. No real excitement because of no clear targets, and running back by committee. He needed Gurley week 1 and he's not getting him. The rams schedule puts them at a disadvantage especially at the start. Rams will need to have some stability on offense in order for that defense to pay off. Until that happens, I can't give them a better record. SF runs into a brick wall this year, losing Harbaugh on top of playing some hard home games and every road game except Cleveland will have some offensive production. Seattle and Arizona make the postseason and Seattle gets the 2 seed.
Losses for the contenders
Sea-@GB, @Cin, @SF, @Bal
Ari-@Chi, @Pit, @Sea, @StL, Min, Sea
NFC Playoff Picture
(1)Green Bay 14-2**first round bye**
(2)Seattle 12-4**first round bye**
(3)Atlanta 11-5
(4)New York Giants 10-6
(5)Arizona 10-6
(6)New Orleans 9-7
NFC Championship Game
Seattle over New Orleans
Seattle will beat New York in the divisional round and New Orleans beats Atlanta and Green Bay on the road due to their overall ownership of Atlanta and the fact packers' loss of Nelson will hurt them against the saints. I don't think the saints playoff road prowess will be enough to get by Seattle who will be at home in that atmosphere of theirs.
AFC Championship Game
Indianapolis over Denver(a rematch from week 9 where Indianapolis wins also)
Indianapolis will get by Baltimore, but Denver gets a division rival in the wild card round another chance in Pittsburgh four weeks later. For the most part playoff rematches have been opposite results from the regular season unless the teams were Seattle, San Francisco, and New England. Even though Denver should lose in Indianapolis week 9 I still think Luck beats Manning again to put his stamp on the league and send Manning into retirement.
Super Bowl 50
Indianapolis over Seattle
Out of all the teams Seattle has played from the AFC that are considered elite, it has been this team they have not beaten. The battle of the big two from the class of 2012 will clash and the qb who can throw better will reign supreme. Seattle will lose back to back superbowls.
2015 NFL Champions
Indianapolis Colts
